Clean-Up Act in Maharashtra

A cousin of mine undertakes government contractual labour work at major ports of western India. For this, he has to frequently deal with politicians and political parties of both Gujarat and Maharashtra. He maintains that corruption pervades in both states but the ones in Maharashtra have an extremely 'Big Mouth' and keep stalling the contract by not sticking to their word and rampant misuse of their position. Now, as a Mumbaikar , I am all too familiar with corruption in daily life, but it is big ticket corruption like the Adarsh Scam, the builder-politician nexus in Mumbai-Pune area and the recently uncovered irrigation scam and co-operative bank scams that grab headlines.

Troubled by the tarnished image of the ruling coalition, Prithviraj Chavan was made the CM of Maharashtra with a single point agenda. To do a Clean-Up Act in Maharashtra and refurbish the image of Congress. I think he has done a commendable job in the matter. The builder lobby in Mumbai seems to have been cornered with a new Housing Regulatory Act which addresses the majority of issues faced by the Mumbai residents. The infrastructure projects seem to have gathered pace with fast track clearances of major projects. One might say that the CM has taken the job a bit too seriously resulting in exposing the alleged corruption charges of his cabinet colleagues from the NCP. To make matters worse for NCP, the opposition parties in the BJP and Shiv Sena have sustained the attack on corruption charges against its ministers and the party has suffered a serious blow. Now, the NCP is up in arms against the Congress demanding the ouster of the CM and have a pliable person occupy the position so that status quo can be achieved. Even a few Congressmen are unhappy with the CM's cautious (judicious?) approach. However, the Congress high command (Madame Sonia Gandhi) is firmly behind his man and would have none of the NCP tantrums.

A major hindrance in the CM's repertoire is that the Congress has failed to win a single election (local body or Municipal Corporation) including the high profile BMC elections under the leadership of Prithviraj Chavan. Recently, polls were conducted in my municipality (MBMC- Mira Bhayandar Municipal Council) and the congress's tally came down to half of its previous count. The CM himself had campaigned in the area and yet the Congress failed miserably. One may argue that local body elections are more about local leaders and local issues yet the issue that the CM is not a crowd puller and has minimal flamboyance cannot be ignored (the CMs rally near my home could only muster crowd in the low thousands). The Maharashtra elections are scheduled in the second half of 2014 which means the CM has another 2 years to prove that he is indeed a mass leader. Also, this could be the acid test for the people of Maharashtra to show that good governance at the state level is indeed rewarded and that development is only criteria in choosing our leaders  as opposed to caste, culture, religion and money power. It is time that the media and we the people overcome the stereotype of blaming all politicians for what is wrong with the country and back a clean and stable government for a better Mumbai and Maharashtra. 

Diplomatically Speaking ..

During my first visit to Delhi in 2008, I saw a car with a strange registration number, something of the nature 21 CC XXXX. On asking, a colleague said that the cars of foreign diplomats have such registration numbers and also informed that one comes across a lot of these cars in Delhi, New Delhi being the capital of the country. Why should there be a separate nomenclature of vehicle registration for cars of foreign embassies/mission? The thought intrigued me.

However, during the recent news update on extradition of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, the reason became clear - 'Diplomatic Immunity'. Wikipedia defines Diplomatic Immunity as "a form of legal immunity and a policy held between governments that ensures that diplomats are given safe passage and are considered not susceptible to lawsuit or prosecution under the host country's laws". The immunity is extended to acts committed within territorial boundaries such as Embassy Offices, Diplomat Residences and even vehicles. As per international law cars bearing these licence plates enjoy diplomatic immunity.

Recent stories suggest that the unique number plates serve as a big identifier for terror groups to target the individuals of a certain country and hence many embassy officials have decided on using cars with local registration numbers. A case in point is of the Israeli officials in India after the recent terror attacks. 

Predictions and Reality

These days, predictions fall in one of the 3 categories:
- Predict all possible outcomes and publicize the one that goes right.
- Predict the outcome so far in the future that there is no way to hold you accountable.
- If your predictions don't seem to go your way, just change them.

I find most of the current financial predictions related to GDP growth, inflation, RoI on investments, sporting outcomes including cricket matches and even weather forecasts follow the above trend. Most of the so-called pundits evaluate all kinds of data and analyze situations to arrive at seemingly concrete predictions about the outcome. How many times have we seen elaborate reports from consulting firms, investment banks, research companies, etc predict 'accurately' the growth of companies, even countries, with all the complex calculations and numerical wizardry. These days we even see experts on television channels engage in predicting events ranging from how much will it rain during the week to who is likely to win the latest T20 match between India and New Zealand.

Now, I am all for quantitative analysis and modelling to arrive at a logical equation that predicts the output. Basic forms include Y = f(x,y,z..) equations where x,y,z... are the variables on which the outcome (Y) is dependent upon. The equation is fairly straightforward as long the variables x,y,z... can be identified and the relationship among them established. However, things begin to get murky once the list of variables increases and the relationship among them becomes complex. Situation gets out of control when it becomes difficult to even identify the variables let alone establishing the way they interact with one another. This is precisely the case with most of the complex predictions doing the rounds today. Things like GDP growth, inflation or even sporting outcomes are dependent on so many variables that it is impossible to take into account the role each plays and an outlier can change the outcome dramatically. For example, not so long ago when people took the 8-9% growth rate of China and India for granted, little did they realize the effect of a recession in US and the debt crises in Europe or even the complex political issues in India and the labor issues in China. Now that things are not as per expectations, there is doom predicted all over and it seems that 5% is the new 'normal' in India. The reality is often somewhere in between.

The central point being it is extremely difficult, if not impossible to predict or even establish general trends to things of such complex nature. At best, it can be an informative guess which comes with all the required disclaimers. For people who might think otherwise, one can always pursue one of the course of actions mentioned earlier. 

Blink and You Win!

Finished reading 'Blink' by Malcom Gladwell. Interesting concept about how our behaviour is controlled by our subconscious mind as much as by our conscious mind. Also, so much additional information can be gathered from gestures, facial expressions of people. According to various researches on the subject, there is a general consensus that this is a skill that can be developed and used effectively. In today's world where there is duplicity all around, it can be a valuable skill to uncover the hidden intentions during a chat/conversation. Googling on Paul Ekman, facial emotion scanning techniques, etc yields an array of useful links/books/videos on the subject. Worth a try!!